Boise: Bubble or Emerging Metropolis?

Florida Atlantic University's School of Business produces a ranked list of housing markets in the U.S. called the Beracha and Johnson Housing Market Ranking which ranks Boise as the #1 housing market in the county. Unfortunately, the ranking is based on how overpriced the average property is. They calculate that Boise real estate is overpriced by 76.63%. This might be pretty concerning to a prospective investor, but it's important to remember that only 1 of 100 metro areas in the U.S. is considered underpriced —Honolulu, HI.

If Boise real estate holds its value or continues to grow for a period of years, then being overpriced in a national context is of little consequence. In the short term, real estate in most areas in the U.S. is predicted to increase in value. Boise is no exception as its prices are predicted to increase by 7.9% in 2022. Sites like millionacres predict that real estate values in Boise will continue to go up driven by huge demand. Looking at the data graphed out, you can see the home values increasing at roughly 20% year over year in the two years before the pandemic. That's strong growth, but not as dramatic as post pandemic where prices were up in excess of 70%. Perhaps this is a sea change moment for the area and Boise will grow into a large city in the coming decades. These things do happen periodically.

The Properties

Mashvisor recommends several different neighborhoods: East Boise, Northend, Downtown, Central Bench, West Boise, and Meridian. This Northend property is a great looking example of a Boise home in a desirable neighborhood.

There's an interesting phenomenon at the top of our list. The #1 and #2 properties are not properties at all, just houses. They are listings for the house only and the buyer would be responsible for moving the house elsewhere. Perhaps developers are seeing more upside in putting a new building on the site and want the extra bonus of someone else removing it for them.